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The 2024 NFL Draft commences Thursday, and hundreds of college football’s top players will see their professional dreams realized over a three-day period. No matter what comes afterwards, it’s always a special moment to see players that have developed and broken out at the amateur level hear their names called on the biggest stage in their sport.

For some players, unfortunately, walking across the stage in April is the pinnacle of their career. Projecting college talent to the NFL level is incredibly hard for myriad reasons, and there are some ballyhooed draft selections that just don’t work out.

We often refer to these prospects as “busts,” and each draft has at least a handful of them. But for those that cover college football, there are some busts that come as an absolute shock. Even the most surefire, can’t-miss prospect can flame out.

Ahead of Thursday’s NFL Draft, the CBS Sports and 247Sports college football crews — who often see these players come into their own at their respective universities — got together to reminisce on some of the most surprising letdowns in NFL Drafts past. In other words, these are college football players that we were absolutely sure would be stars in the NFL, that just weren’t for whatever reason.

Chase Young, EDGE, Ohio State
As more offenses are adopting spread-based, pass-heavy schemes, good edge rushers are at a premium. When Young, who was the No. 4 prospect nationally in the class of 2017, was at Ohio State, he wasn’t just good — he was downright elite. After a relatively quiet freshman season, Young burst onto the scene in 2018 with 10.5 sacks. He blew that number out of the water in 2019 with 16.5 sacks in just 12 games, collecting unanimous All-America honors, the Ted Hendricks Award, Chuck Bednarik Award and the Bronko Nagurski Trophy. He also finished fourth in Heisman Trophy voting, becoming just the ninth defensive player to ever be nominated for college football’s most illustrious individual award.

He was then selected No. 2 overall, ahead of the likes to Tua Tagovailoa, Justin Herbert and Justin Jefferson in the 2020 NFL Draft. So, yeah, expectations were incredibly high. Things started so well. He was named NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year in 2020 after registering 7.5 sacks, four forced fumbles and 44 total tackles. That was the high point of his career thus far. Young hasn’t played in a full season since. From 2021-22, he had 1.5 sacks and missed a lot of time while dealing with a torn ACL. The Washington Commanders traded him to the San Francisco 49ers in the final year of his rookie contract, and the latter team let him walk in free agency. Young is still just 25 years old, so there’s time to turn it around, but neck surgery after signing with the New Orleans Saints is a tough start. Given his already extensive injury history, who knows what the future holds. — Will Backus

Montee Ball, RB, Wisconsin
Ball earned All-America honors in back-to-back seasons as an astronomically productive rusher for Wisconsin during a college career that spanned 2009-12. He totaled 1,923 yards and 33 touchdowns in 2011 to finish fourth in the Heisman Trophy voting, and he followed up with 1,830 yards the following season for good measure. The Denver Broncos took Ball with the 58th pick in 2013, making him just the third running back selected behind Giovani Bernard and Le’Veon Bell. He was also taken ahead of Alabama’s Eddie Lacy.

Both Bell and Lacy made Pro Bowls, and Bernard enjoyed a 10-year NFL career. To the contrary, Ball fizzled out of the league with just 731 career rushing yards to his name after 21 appearances in two seasons. A confluence of on- and off-field factors contributed to Ball’s demise, but it made for a jarring twist to those who watched him in college. Given Ball’s prolific collegiate production and status as a multi-year star in the Big Ten, it seemed like a forgone conclusion that he would enjoy at least some success in the NFL. — David Cobb

Mac Jones, QB, Alabama
After managing one of the most efficient seasons for a quarterback in college football history en route to a perfect season and national title, Jones was primed to lead New England for the next decade post-Tom Brady. It didn’t happen. His confidence was noticeably different from the pocket, windows that were open in the SEC leading to big plays transformed into interceptions, and he was traded for a sixth-round pick before the end of his rookie deal — shocking to say the least. — Brad Crawford

Corey Coleman, WR, Baylor
I covered Coleman as a student reporter and was blown away by his talent. On paper, he seemed to be the complete package — elite speed, freakish athleticism, and a knack for coming down with the ball in traffic and making plays after the catch. While the receivers coming out of the old Baylor system never quite reached stardom in the NFL, Terrance Williams and Kendall Wright built solid careers for themselves. Blame Browns incompetence if you want (and I will), but Coleman never put the pieces together. Honorable mention goes to Josh Rosen, who I was convinced would thrive around real NFL talent. Apparently not! — Shehan Jeyarajah

Justin Gilbert, CB, Oklahoma State
Gilbert was a consensus All-American coming out of Oklahoma State and went No. 8 overall to the Cleveland Browns in the 2014 NFL Draft. Considered one of the top cornerback prospects in the draft, Gilbert went on to start just three games in two seasons for the Browns before being traded to division rival Pittsburgh Steelers. — Cody Nagel

Johnny Manziel, QB, Texas A&M
I’ll gladly roll through the shame wash one more time for how emphatic I was that Johnny Football could be a game-changer at the next level. Covering the SEC and college football as a whole throughout those 2012 and 2013 campaigns featured not only absurd playmaking by the Aggies’ quarterback, but some terrific performances against defenses that were loaded up with NFL talent. Of course, time has given us the perspective to understand the unique peak that was ongoing for Texas A&M’s offense (even beyond the quarterback), and a better idea of what was going on behind the scenes and off the field around this college football supernova. But when the doubters and haters were loud in 2013, I got louder, and it turns out I was just loud and wrong. — Chip Patterson

Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State
Blackmon’s breakout season in 2010 at Oklahoma State was the first year I started watching college football consistently. My pre-teenage self was so convinced that Blackmon would star in the NFL, and for good reason. Blackmon caught 38 touchdowns during his final two seasons in Stillwater before the Jacksonville Jaguars selected him with the No. 5 overall pick in the 2012 NFL Draft. Blackmon only played 20 games in the NFL — including 16 of those in his rookie season — and his career was derailed by various suspensions. — Cameron Salerno

Jamarcus Russell, QB, LSU
I was shocked that Jamarcus Russell was a draft bust. Yes, in hindsight there were tons of red flags. But this was almost 20 years ago and I was not working in sports media, so I did not know about his work habits, the changes in his support structure, etc. At the time I just saw a huge, mobile QB who was productive at LSU with a crazy arm. Eighteen touchdowns in three seasons with the Oakland Raiders, who took him No. 1 overall to kick off the short-lived Lane Kiffin era, was not what anybody was expecting. — Bud Elliott

Count Colorado coach Deion Sanders among those who believe that former Washington quarterback Michael Penix Jr. is being slept on as the 2024 NFL Draft approaches. Sanders issued an impassioned message of support for Penix on Wednesday, just one day before the draft begins in Detroit.

“I can’t stand the way the main stream media and draft experts have look over, look by & looked pass (sic) MICHAEL PENIX JR,” Sanders wrote on X. “This is ridiculous. This young man had a GREAT year and 1 average game vs the #1 defense in college football. SOMEBODY stand up & tell the Truth plz.”

Despite some obvious concerns about age and injury, Penix is slotted at No. 30 in the CBS Sports NFL Draft Prospect Rankings and is the fifth quarterback in the hierarchy behind Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels and J.J. McCarthy. That still puts Penix in the first-round conversation.

The one “average game” Sanders is likely alluding to would be this past season’s College Football Playoff National Championship, when Washington fell 34-13 against Michigan. The left-handed passer completed 27 of 51 passes for 251 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions in that contest to bring an unremarkable conclusion to an incredible two-year run with the Huskies.

Penix finished second in the Heisman Trophy voting while leading the nation in passing yards (4,903) in 2023. He threw 36 touchdown passes while guiding Washington to the Pac-12 title. Penix’s 25-3 record as a starter for the Huskies is the stuff of legend for a program that went 4-8 the year before his arrival.

I can’t stand the way the main stream media and draft experts have look over, look by & looked pass MICHAEL PENIX JR. This is ridiculous. This young man had a GREAT year and 1 average game vs the #1 defense in college football. SOMEBODY stand up & tell the Truth plz. #CoachPrime

— COACH PRIME (@DeionSanders) April 24, 2024
How that translates to the pros remains to be seen. Penix will be 24 when the 2024 NFL season begins, placing him firmly on the older side for a draft prospect. Before Penix ever transferred to Washington from Indiana in December 2021, he had already suffered season-ending ACL injuries (2018, 2022), as well as a clavicle injury that required surgery (2019) and a dislocated shoulder (2021).

IRVING, Texas — The College Football Playoff management committee gained some clarity over details of the upcoming 12-team playoff and positioning of the Army-Navy game during two days of meetings, which concluded Wednesday. However, the group ultimately left without discussing many long-term key priorities, including expansion or auto-bid structure.

The board, made up of the 10 FBS conference commissioners and new Notre Dame athletic director Pete Bevacqua, primarily dealt with recapping the 2023 playoff and organizing logistics of the upcoming 12-team playoff. (One key commissioner was not present due to a family matter.) The discussion was deep in minutia and included everything from ref assignments to family travel budgets for players, which increased from $1.5 million to $7.5 million as the CFP increases from funding three to 11 games.

“The four first-round games are arguably the biggest change in FBS football probably since the BCS came,” executive director Bill Hancock said. “Only four schools will host those games, but 40 or so have to plan to host, so there are a lot of details in there.”

This was the first meeting with the full board since the SEC and Big Ten strong-armed a much bigger slice of the longterm CFP revenue. Still, multiple sources described the attitude in the room as “collegial.”

These meetings marked a period of transition for the CFP as college football enters its next form. Incoming executive director Richard M. Clark attended his first annual meeting as he prepares to take over for Hancock. Clark officially retires from his role as superintendent of the Air Force Academy at the end of May and joins the CFP full time in June. Additionally, incoming AAC commissioner Tim Pernetti joined Mike Aresco, who leaves his post at the end of the academic year.

Among the attendees was new Pac-12 commissioner Teresa Gold, who was promoted by Oregon State and Washington State. A source confirmed to CBS Sports that the Pac-12 is contractually mandated to have a seat and vote on the management committee through the end of the 2025 contract. Starting in 2026, the board will shrink to 10 total votes.

Regardless, the management committee clarified at its previous meeting that the two remaining Pac-12 schools will not be eligible for auto-bids in the first two years of the expanded 12-team College Football Playoff. Instead, they will compete as de facto FBS independents.

The Pac-12 is also set to lose its representative spot on the College Football Playoff committee. Pat Chun was named to the 13-member selection committee while athletic director at Washington State but will step down after leaving for the same role at rival Washington. The 13th slot will be filled by an at-large member, who will be named later.

Each power conference is guaranteed an athletic director on the selection committee, but the Big Ten already has chair Warde Manuel of Michigan as a representative.

Army-Navy not considered by CFP
The impact of future Army-Navy games was also among the firm decisions made during the CFP meetings. The annual rivalry between storied military academies will not be taken under consideration for CFP contention because it will be played after the selections have been made.

Previously, if a CFP spot hypothetically came come down to the Army-Navy game, the selection committee could have held until conclusion of the game. The protocols called for a teleconference immediately after the game to finalize any rankings or selection. In a 12-team playoff world, the time frame was too tight.

The selection committee consulted with officials from both schools, who were ultimately uninterested in moving the game.

“They both stressed that they wanted to keep their game where it’s currently scheduled,” Hancock said. “Understanding that neither team would have the benefit of an additional data point to be considered by the committee.”

With Army set to join the AAC, either team would have a guaranteed 12 games played – including a conference championship game – by Selection Sunday. If one of the two schools made the first round of the CFP, it would play a game just one week later.

“There’s a lot of complications with waiting a week when you’ve got a 12-team playoff,” Aresco said. “It’s one thing when you do a four-team playoff and you’re not playing until the end of the month. And especially now, with that G5 slot, there’s a reasonable chance with a good season that a service academy could have a great year and be a playoff team.”

Mock selection
Commissioners went through a CFP bracketing exercise using the final 2022 rankings but with 2024 conference alignment (notably, with Utah serving as Big 12 champion). TCU and Ohio State, the No. 3 and No. 4 seeds in that year’s playoff field, were bumped out of the top four in the 12-team mock because they lacked conference titles. Instead, No. 7 Clemson and No. 8 Utah moved up to the No. 3 seed and No. 4 seed, respectively. No. 16 Tulane captured the 12-seed as the fifth conference champion, which is guaranteed a slot but not a bye.

“We’re going to have to educate people,” Aresco said. “You’re going to see champions who get ranked lower than the guys who are at-large. That’s something we’re going to have to explain.”

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Shehan Jeyarajah/CBS Sports
If the 12-team CFP had existed in 2023, two SEC teams would have gotten bumped for others outside of the top 12. Arizona as a hypothetical Big 12 champ would have jumped to No. 4, ahead of Washington and Alabama (treating Texas as the SEC champ for the exercise). Liberty earned the Group of Five slot. Ole Miss and Oklahoma would have been pushed out of the field.

“We’ve said from the beginning that this is a possibility,” SEC commissioner Greg Sankey said. “It’s not a surprise.”

For the next two years of the CFP contract, the bowls will lean on existing partnerships. The Big Ten will essentially be guaranteed a spot in the Rose Bowl for the quarterfinals. The ACC champion will get slotted in the Orange Bowl. The higher-ranked SEC or Big 12 champion will go to the Sugar Bowl. Even if a higher-ranked team had geographical priority, the existing contracts would take precedence. The bowl contracts expire after the 2025 playoff; there is no plan at this point about how bowl selection could work long term.

Notably, there is no policy about rematches or conference matchups in the early rounds of the College Football Playoff. In the exercise, the 2022 rankings produced an Ohio State-Penn State first round rematch in the 6-11 spot. Commissioners downplayed concerns, especially as the power conferences each swell past 16 teams.

“We’re going to have some great matchups and some terrific locations,” ACC commissioner Jim Phillips said. “I think this is going to be tremendous for the fans.”

Members of the Chicago Bears’ staff would be wise to work on their debating skills in the days leading up to the 2024 NFL Draft.

Regarding who they should take with the No. 9 overall pick, Bears general manager Ryan Poles recently said that he and his staff would debate which player should be selected.

“I like the numbers in terms of the talented players that can get to nine,” Poles said, via the team’s website. “We’re going to do some cool things when we get back, kind of break into teams. One team is going to talk about [why] the tackle position is the best to go after, [why] the receiver’s the best, [why] the defensive end’s the best and use factual information to spit that out — and we’ll have a debate in terms of what’s more impactful for our football team, short term and long term.”

“We’re going to look at, ‘Hey, who’s the best tackle? Who’s the best receiver? Who’s the best rusher? Who’s the best this or that?'” Bears coach Matt Eberflus added. “It’s going to be good to be able to break into that and see guys’ opinions. In order to have good communication, it’s got to be authentic and it’s got to be true, and you have to be able to speak your opinion.”

While the Bears could select a player with the pick, Poles is open to trading the pick in exchange for draft capital. Chicago currently has just four draft picks — two in the first (1, 9), one in the third (75) and one in the fourth (123). The team recently dealt a fourth-rounder to the Chargers for star wife receiver Keenan Allen.

“For sure,” Poles said. “That will kind of play out. We’ll see what the numbers look like and that’ll kind of dictate how far we can move back if we decide to do that.”

It appears that the Bears have decided what they will do with the No. 1 overall pick. After trading Justin Fields to the Pittsburgh Steelers, Chicago began finalizing its evaluations of each of the top quarterback prospects and were planning to finalize its decision by the end of March, according to ESPN.

While Chicago is keeping its options open with the ninth pick, it seems like a forgone conclusion that the Bears will select between quarterbacks Caleb Williams, Drake Maye or Jayden Daniels with the No. 1 overall pick. Each of our six CBS Sports draft experts currently have the Bears using the pick to select Williams, the 2022 Heisman Trophy winner.

About five months after breaking his fibula, Iowa defensive back Cooper DeJean is cleared for football activities. DeJean, who is one of the top defensive prospects heading into the 2024 NFL Draft, sent a letter to all 32 teams in the league, informing them of his progress, according to ESPN.

The 21-year-old will reportedly hold an individual workout at Iowa on April 8, where he will do on-field testing and position work with no restrictions.

While he is one of the top prospects at his position set to enter the NFL, the injury caused debate on when he would be drafted. Now that he is medically cleared, his stock could go up and teams could be interested in taking him sooner than they would have if the injury lingered.

CBS Sports mock drafts have him going anywhere from No. 17 to No. 31, with teams including the Philadelphia Eagles, Jacksonville Jaguars, Green Bay Packers and San Francisco 49ers as possible landing spots.

He was unable to participate in the Scouting Combine in Indianapolis in February, but at the time, he did predict that he would be able to do a workout before the draft took place. His prediction has come true.

Before the season-ending injury in 2023, DeJean had 41 tackles (26 solo, 15 assists), two interceptions, five pass breakups and a punt return for a touchdown. In total, he returned 21 punts for 241 yards.

In 2022, DeJean played in all 13 games, finishing with 75 tackles (56 solo, 19 assists), eight pass breakups with five interceptions, three returned for touchdowns. He received multiple awards, including unanimous consensus All-American.

The versatile player is unsure whether he will play inside or outside in the NFL, noting it is something he has spoken to teams about. DeJean took on multiple roles with Iowa, and whether he will be a cornerback or a safety going forward is something that has yet to be determined.

His strengths include his physicality and return ability, and he can make a play on the ball even if he is initially beat. DeJean sometimes struggles with too much contact when covering a receiver.

While it’ll likely be overlooked, the Cleveland Browns are making a smart signing as free agency enters its second month. The Browns have signed Cleveland native and former Jets Pro Bowler Justin Hardee.

This is a smart signing given Hardee’s special teams prowess and the NFL’s recent adjustments to the kickoff, adjustments that all but guarantee significantly more kickoff returns this season. Hardee, who recently turned 30, established himself as one of the NFL’s top special teams players during his three seasons with the Jets.

A cornerback by trade, Hardee has made special teams his calling card since entering the NFL in 2017 as a member of the New Orleans Saints. His play on special teams in 2022 earned him his first Pro Bowl selection. His forced fumble of then-Steelers returner Gunner Olszewski spearheaded a Jets come-from-behind win in Pittsburgh in Week 4 of that season.

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Hardee actually played receiver during his time at Illinois from 2012-16. After an injury wiped out his 2015 season, Hardee returned and started in each of his 12 games as a senior. He caught a career high nine passes for 125 yards against Northwestern in his final regular season game.

A proud Cleveland native, Hardee was overheard telling then-Browns quarterback Joe Flacco to bring a championship to the city following the Browns’ win over the Jets last season. Hardee will now look to do his part in helping Cleveland reach its first Super Bowl.

The Baltimore Ravens rebounded from a couple of stale years to reclaim their spot among the top offenses in the NFL last season. Baltimore checked in sixth in yards, fourth in points, fourth in the share of drives that ended in a touchdown or field goal, fifth in pass offensive efficiency (as measured by FTN’s DVOA), first in rush offense efficiency and fourth in overall offensive efficiency.

With a new coordinator in Todd Monken, new weapons in Zay Flowers, Nelson Agholor, Odell Beckham Jr., and Keaton Mitchell, Lamar Jackson was able to once again have an MVP-caliber season, and the Ravens quarterback claimed the award for the second time in five years.

Fast forward to 2024 and Jackson will again have a new weapon by his side: former Tennessee Titans star Derrick Henry. And once again, the offense is going to evolve again, according to head coach John Harbaugh.

“It’ll look different, there’s no doubt about that,” Harbaugh said, via the team’s official website. “That’s the one thing we believe in — keeping it moving. You can never keep it the same.”

The Ravens don’t plan to change the way they use Jackson, but instead, to incorporate Henry and his unique skill set into what they did last year, and allow that change to evolve the offense itself.

“Lamar is going to play the way Lamar plays, and that’s what I’m for,” Harbaugh said. “I love the way he plays the game. I think he’s intuitive and intelligent, just a phenomenal football player. He sees the game in very unique ways and very smart ways, so I’m for him playing the way he plays. I think that Derrick Henry being there, plus Lamar, plus the other guys, it’s a good formula.”

Specifically, the team won’t suddenly go increasingly RPO-heavy (run-pass option) to make defenses account for the threat of Jackson and Henry on every single play. That’s something you want opponents to deal with, but leaning too heavily into it can constrain the passing game because it takes away some of the ability to throw deep down the field, which is an area where Jackson excels.

“I think we’re in the right place with our RPOs,” Harbaugh said. “I don’t think it’s something that we’re going to like go wholesale towards, because Lamar has got so many different ways he plays the game, and there are other things we like to do, to be honest with you.

“I don’t see us going towards like [a] specific offense that runs those more than anybody else. RPOs will be a part of what we’re doing, for sure, but they’re not going to be the main part of what we’re doing.”

Star running back Derrick Henry chose to part ways with the Tennessee Titans, and ultimately signed with the Baltimore Ravens in free agency last month. The four-time Pro Bowler will have a chance to chase a Super Bowl ring with the Ravens, but admits that one other scenario may have been a tremendous fit.

In an appearance on “The Pivot” podcast with former NFL stars Ryan Clark, Channing Crowder and Fred Taylor, Henry acknowledged that signing with the Dallas Cowboys would’ve been a “perfect situation.”

“I knew that once free agency started, I wanted to work something out [with the Ravens] if we could,” Henry said. “Even though I’m living in Dallas and Dallas being a perfect situation as well because we lived there and wouldn’t have to move.”

However, the Cowboys never showed any real interest in talking about a potential deal, according to Henry.

Henry made it clear that he was more than happy that he ended up signing with the Ravens when the opportunity presented itself.

“I’m happy I’m going somewhere where they’re hungry for it and they’re right on the cusp,” Henry added. “They’re trying to win it. And being so close and losing that game to Kansas City, I know they’re hungry, I know they’re going to come in with the right mindset and let’s get to it.”

Henry has never made it to the Super Bowl in his NFL career. The closest that the bruising back has gotten was when the Titans fell to the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game during the 2019 season.

Now Henry joins a Ravens group that is coming off their own AFC title game loss to the Chiefs, despite a spectacular 13-4 record in the regular season. He’ll look to help put the Ravens over the top and help the franchise win its first Super Bowl since 2012.

The NFL has already approved one major change to the kickoff, but Evan McPherson isn’t quite satisfied just yet. The Bengals kicker wants to see the league add another rule that would make it possible to score points on kickoffs.

During a recent interview with the team’s official website, McPherson shared his proposal.

“I’ve got an idea for a fun rule,” McPherson said. “If you kick it through the uprights, make that four points. And if you miss, they get it at the 30.”

Although McPherson was half-joking and it’s a proposal that the NFL owners would almost certainly never approve, it’s actually not the first time that proposal like this has come up. Back in 2016, Ravens coach John Harbaugh said that teams should get one point if their kicker puts the kickoff through the uprights.

“I’m on record advocating that should be a point,” Harbaugh said at the time. “I’m serious now, kinda. Really, how exciting would that make it, for [Justin Tucker] to make these kickoff touchbacks so valuable? Let’s do it. Let’s go for it.”

The ball is currently placed at the kicking team’s 35-yard line for a kickoff, which means a kicker would have to accurately boot the ball at least 75 yards to score any points under these two proposals. The longest field goal in NFL history is 66 yards, so it would be 9 yards farther than that. Kickers would benefit from the use of a tee on the kickoff, but it still wouldn’t be easy.

The problem with the proposal is that the NFL is trying to encourage MORE kickoff returns and awarding a point to a team every time their kicker put a kickoff through the uprights would likely cut down on returns, so it’s unlikely the NFL will never make McPherson’s rule happen.

As for the new kickoff rule, it’s likely going to be a headache for most kickers around the NFL and McPherson explained why.

“I might have to make more tackles, I’ve got to get in the tackling line now,” McPherson said of what will change for him with the rule change. “It takes away from the skills us kickers have.”

With more kickoff returns, that means kickers will likely be making more tackles this season, which most kickers probably won’t be thrilled about.